Cliophysics: Socio-Political Reliability Theory, Polity Duration and African Political (In)stabilities

Quantification of historical sociological processes have recently gained
attention among theoreticians in the effort of providing a solid theoretical
understanding of the behaviors and regularities present in socio-political
dynamics. Here we present a reliability theory of polity processes with emphases
on individual political dynamics of African countries. We found that the
structural properties of polity failure rates successfully capture the risk of
political vulnerability and instabilities in which
, ,
, and of the countries
with monotonically increasing, unimodal, U-shaped and monotonically decreasing
polity failure rates, respectively, have high level of state fragility indices.
The quasi-U-shape relationship between average polity duration and regime types
corroborates historical precedents and explains the stability of the autocracies
and democracies.

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African Political (In)stabilities
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